January 6, 2015

Air Jordan 1 Fragment - Five Day Resell Recap

Do we really need to give an intro?  If you’re reading this blog and don’t know about the Fragment 1, I assume you’re my mother, because that’s the only logical explanation.  Mom, I’ll explain later.  Let’s move on.

The Fragment 1 released on December 27.  We pulled this data on January 1.  So this analysis starts during pre-sales, and continues for five days post-release.  As always, it’s an analysis of closed eBay auctions.  (Live Frag auctions continue to happen).

Resell overview:

Fragment 1 Overview

 

Key Insights:

  • As always, price of the “unsold” auctions – those that end without a sale – is higher than those which actually sell
  • The Fragment 1 was very limited, as we know, so a total of 169 pairs sold in 5 days feels like a pretty decent number moving.
  • $744 is a lot of money for a shoe.  It retailed for $185.

Let’s look at the sales price and volume over time:

Fragment 1 Price Volume

Key Insights:

  • Not surprisingly, almost 1/3 of all sales happened on release day
  • Pre-sale was relatively low for these, presumably because so few people could secure their pairs ahead of time
  • Price has been increasing pretty clearly.  Although it looks like there has been a slight dip over the past few days, our guess is that these turn back up very soon and continue increasing for a very long time.

Let’s take a look at two additional stats:  time to sell and number of pairs per seller.

Fragment 1 Sellers Days

Key Insights:

  • The Time-to-Release chart is very interesting.  For a long time (7+ days prior to release) pre-sales took a while to sell.  But as the hype grew, as we approached release date, there was a pretty drastic decrease in time to sell from almost five days to less than two.
  • Time-to-Release bottomed out two days post-release at exactly one day. Since then it has been rising very quickly.  This makes complete sense, as we know prices have been increasing.
  • The Sellers chart is not at all interesting (in our opinion).  Only 8 sellers had more than 2 pairs to sell.  With such a limited release, that is to be expected.

Let’s see if we can identify fakes purely based on resell price:

Fragment 1 by Price

Key Insights:

  • Although we’ve used statistical techniques to eliminate fakes prior to this, this shows all sales, by price.  And as you can see, there are a 61 pairs that might be fake.
  • The difference between the resell price is $868 vs. $744 if we exclude these possible fakes.  But the reality is that the price is probably closer to the middle number, $796, because many of the low sales occurred pre-release, before people realized how limited and how expensive, this shoe would get.

Regardless of price, a final view which may be helpful is to look at sales by day (as opposed to just average price by day, which we did in the second chart):

Fragment 1 by Price by Day

What do you think?  Will the Fragment 1 continue to increase in price?  Which are fake? When are you going to sell yours?

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