Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred - By The Numbers

The Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred (2019) is set to re-release next Saturday, December 14, and sales numbers are already strong. Around this time of year, there are two things that you can count on: Home Alone TV marathons and Jordan Brand retroing an Air Jordan 11. It has become a tradition in the last decade for Jordan to bring in the holidays with the AJ 11. This year, for the first time since 2012, the Bred 11s have returned to the masses. Back in November, Jordan Brand surprised buyers with a shock drop and the sneakers sold out in seconds, and we expect big things from next week’s release as well. Let’s look into why history and the data play key roles in helping this sneaker hit nothing but net. 

The History

The year is 1995. Cell phones could only make calls and O.J. Simpson…well…we won’t get into that. It was in the Spring that Michael Jordan came out of retirement and reunited with the Chicago Bulls. After playing his first games back in the Air Jordan X, Jordan unveiled a new, game-changing design in time for the Bulls second round face-off against the young and talented Orlando Magic. The design was unlike anything seen before in the Jordan shoe lineage. The Air Jordan 11 displayed two materials that had never been used on a basketball shoe: patent leather and carbon fiber. The 360-degree patent leather atop the white upper of the Concord 11s caught the attention of the world and, unfortunately, the NBA. They didn’t know what to make of it, so they fined MJ $5,000 because it didn’t fit the game apparel regulations. To avoid future fines, Jordan played the remainder of the series in a new Air Jordan 11 colorway now known as the Space Jam.

Although MJ didn’t win a ring in his immediate return, the following season would bring roses. Michael led the Chicago Bulls to a monumental 72-10 record in the 1995-1996 regular season, all while wearing the Air Jordan 11. In the playoffs, he wore another new colorway of his eleventh signature shoe. MJ added the “Bred” colorway to the AJ 11 and the rest is history. The NBA championship was brought home to Chicago in style. The Air Jordan 11 Playoff Bred was now forever associated with Michael’s return to dominance, cementing itself as one of the most popular designs in the brand’s history.

This Air Jordan 11 can also be credited in starting “camp out” culture. Many students started skipping school just to get their hands on upcoming releases during the week. The insane demand for these sneakers is one of the main reasons Jordan Brand moved its release schedule to Saturdays. That tradition continues on this upcoming Saturday, December 14, with the release of the Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred (2019). 

The Data

Over the last decade, the Air Jordan 11 release has become synonymous with the holiday season. Jordan Brand has created a tradition to close out each year with one of its strongest models, and the Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred (2019) is the latest holiday offering. We went back and looked at the seven OG Jordan 11 retros from the last 10 years to see how they’ve performed on the secondary market.

The first thing to observe is that, over the last 12 months, OG AJ11 holiday releases from 2010-2019 have all performed well, averaging a resale value of $320 and premiums of 65% across the seven examples we selected. One of the best performers from this group is the previous Bred colorway from 2012. The Jordan 11 Playoffs Bred (2012) averaged a resale value of $389 and premiums of 116%. The success of this Bred colorway shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the rich history and iconic storytelling outlined above. For that reason, there is a reason to be optimistic that this latest iteration, the Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred (2019), will acquire value over the long term.

That being said, the data also shows that follow-up releases often underperform their earlier predecessors. For example, the Concord 11s that released in 2011 are averaging price premiums of 79%, while the Concord 11s that released in 2018 are averaging price premiums of just 26%. Moreover, Jordan 11 releases acquire value with age – it doesn’t just happen overnight. Thus, the holiday releases from the first part of the decade are significantly more valuable than those of more recent vintage. For these reasons, it may be a while before the 2019 Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred hits triple-digit premiums.

How will prices for the Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs Bred (2019) respond after their official release, when supply fully hits the market? Since the shock drop last month, the Bred 11s have posted an average resale price of $282 and an average premium of 28%. Based on the high number of pre-release sales and the second release on schedule, we expect this shoe to be highly accessible at a decent price following the re-release. After the original shock release, many were not feeling pressed to pay the market price with another chance to acquire these sneakers at retail so close on the horizon. But based on the past, there is every reason to think this sneaker will acquire value over time, following the trend of previous Jordan holiday releases.