{"id":2548,"date":"2015-04-09T23:21:53","date_gmt":"2015-04-10T03:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stockx.com\/sneaker-blog\/?p=2548"},"modified":"2015-12-17T13:24:52","modified_gmt":"2015-12-17T18:24:52","slug":"ebay-sneaker-sales-have-declined-for-three-consecutive-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockx.com\/news\/ebay-sneaker-sales-have-declined-for-three-consecutive-months\/","title":{"rendered":"eBay Sneaker Sales Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months"},"content":{"rendered":"

In October of 2014 we sized<\/a> the resell market at $1 billion.\u00a0 Last week Financial Times ran a resell sneakers story<\/a> and included our $1B estimate.\u00a0 Within the next two days at least five sneaker blogs reported that the Financial Times had pegged the market at $1B. I guess it’s time we publish an update . . .<\/p>\n

That said, the market is essentially identical to where it was in October . . . at least in total size:\u00a0 $1 billion.\u00a0 In October, eBay sneaker sales the 12 months prior had been $338 million.\u00a0 Currently, that number is $334 million.\u00a0 We still estimate eBay to be 75% “sneakerhead”, and we still estimate eBay to be one-quarter of the entire U.S. resell market.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Campless<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is a breakdown of monthly eBay sales for the past 27 months.\u00a0 As noted often by this blog, the secondary market is cyclical.\u00a0 This chart makes that obvious, as you can see spikes from December to March each year, with dips in the spring and summer.<\/p>\n

\"Campless<\/a><\/p>\n

At first glance the monthly eBay chart above seems to add no great insight.\u00a0 In October we reported that the market was growing; here we can see the market has grown 12% versus the previous 12 months. So it might feel right to conclude that the market is still growing, as it was in October.\u00a0 But upon closer inspection, something seems off.\u00a0 These past few months – the 2015 green bars – should probably be taller.\u00a0 In a growing market we would expect the tallest bars to be the most recent months.\u00a0 But that’s not what we see, is it?<\/p>\n

The above chart is total dollars.\u00a0 A better way to look at market growth is to compare growth rate.\u00a0 Because the sneaker industry is cyclical, it’s best to compare same-month year-over-year sales.\u00a0 For example, we would compare January 2014 sales to January 2013 sales.\u00a0 When we plot growth rate percentages, the chart looks much different:<\/p>\n

\"Campless<\/a><\/p>\n

January 2015 marked the first time in the three years since Campless began tracking the resell market that eBay sneakers sales declined.\u00a0 Although there were still $26 million in resell, January 2015 was 5% less than January 2014.\u00a0 February and March continued the decline, recording -10% and -14% versus same-month previous-year sales.\u00a0 The trend line (dotted black line) sloping sharply downward is as clear as day.\u00a0 This market is definitely not growing anymore and, for the past three months, has been declining.\u00a0 To quote the great Joey Lawrence:\u00a0 Whoa!<\/p>\n

And this feels right.\u00a0 Who among us hasn’t noticed the overwhelming crush of release saturation?\u00a0 Since Thanksgiving the number of pairs released per week has been comical, with severe overloads around Black Friday, Christmas, New Years and All Star Weekend.\u00a0 Hell, All Star Weekend became All Star 10-Days of Drops – and the majority of those were GRs; true gems (Fragments, Don C, Mirror Foams) were few and far between.\u00a0 Top resell shops like Sole Supremacy and 23Penny put out warnings that they wouldn’t buy All Star releases, and this piece from Sn’eads by Ree<\/a> and accompanying picture from a Nike Outlet sums it up:<\/p>\n

\"Nike<\/a><\/p>\n

Picture from Complex, using art from Sn’eads by Ree<\/em><\/p>\n

It would, reason, then, that the market as a whole may be declining.\u00a0 Using our eBay data as a proxy, a 10% dip might be right.\u00a0 But…<\/p>\n

…before you freak out and Rick James someone’s couch, let’s be very clear about what “market” we’re analyzing, and how.\u00a0 Release saturation and the All-Star recap is anecdotal.\u00a0 The only hard data we have is eBay data – not the secondary sneaker market as a whole.\u00a0 Yes, eBay is the largest resell channel.\u00a0 And, yes, eBay is the perfect mid-market position reflective of true pricing.\u00a0 But that doesn’t mean it can’t trend differently than other channels, or the market as a whole.<\/p>\n

Here’s a different view.\u00a0 Maybe sales are moving away from eBay and to other channels?\u00a0 Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Reddit, Amazon, Craig’s List, sneaker shows, resell shops, consignment, Kixify, Sole Collector, Nike Talk, new apps, new marketplaces, new ideas…the list is literally endless, and growing by the second.<\/p>\n

Another possibility…even if they’re NOT switching channels, maybe we’ve reached a tipping point of sneakerheads learning how to source deals on eBay but close them on Paypal?\u00a0 While overall sneaker sales are declining, the number of pairs being listed on eBay is still increasing, albeit at a declining rate:<\/p>\n

\"Campless<\/a><\/p>\n

Even though the rate of growth for sneaker listings in declining, it’s still growing.\u00a0 To put it in context, in 2013 the average number of listings per month was 455K.\u00a0 In 2014 that number was 677K.\u00a0 That’s a lot of sneaker listings.\u00a0 And if sales are declining, it stands to reason that at least some of these which start out listed on eBay end up being sold offline.<\/p>\n

These are real possibilities, all of which imply the market is just fine, it’s eBay that’s declining.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, we don’t systematically track other channels.\u00a0 We have spot data on every channel, but not enough to truly answer the question.\u00a0 This has inspired us to make some changes behind the scenes and we’re going to do our best to collect as much data as we can about as many other channels, so that the next time we have this conversation, we can shed a little more light on the issue.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, we’d love to hear what you think:<\/p>\n

A.\u00a0 The resell market as a whole is declining.<\/p>\n

B.\u00a0 The resell market is fine.\u00a0 It’s just eBay declining.<\/p>\n

Choose one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In October of 2014 we sized the resell market at $1 billion.\u00a0 Last week Financial Times ran a resell sneakers story and included our $1B estimate.\u00a0 Within the next two days at least five sneaker blogs reported that the Financial Times had pegged the market at $1B. I guess it’s time we publish an update […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2552,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"brands":[],"series":[],"verticals":[],"class_list":["post-2548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\neBay Sneaker Sales Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months - StockX News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/stockx.com\/news\/ebay-sneaker-sales-have-declined-for-three-consecutive-months\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"eBay Sneaker Sales Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months - StockX News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In October of 2014 we sized the resell market at $1 billion.\u00a0 Last week Financial Times ran a resell sneakers story and included our $1B estimate.\u00a0 Within the next two days at least five sneaker blogs reported that the Financial Times had pegged the market at $1B. I guess it’s time we publish an update […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/stockx.com\/news\/ebay-sneaker-sales-have-declined-for-three-consecutive-months\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"StockX News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/stockxdotcom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-04-10T03:21:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-12-17T18:24:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/d15lrsitp7y7u.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Campless-1B-Market-0409152.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Josh Luber\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@stockx\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@stockx\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Josh Luber\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"eBay Sneaker Sales Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months - StockX News","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/stockx.com\/news\/ebay-sneaker-sales-have-declined-for-three-consecutive-months\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"eBay Sneaker Sales Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months - StockX News","og_description":"In October of 2014 we sized the resell market at $1 billion.\u00a0 Last week Financial Times ran a resell sneakers story and included our $1B estimate.\u00a0 Within the next two days at least five sneaker blogs reported that the Financial Times had pegged the market at $1B. 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