{"id":408,"date":"2013-11-22T03:56:50","date_gmt":"2013-11-22T03:56:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sneakerheaddata.wordpress.com\/?p=408"},"modified":"2015-12-17T15:14:12","modified_gmt":"2015-12-17T20:14:12","slug":"yeezy-2-analysis-spotting-fakes-with-data-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockx.com\/news\/yeezy-2-analysis-spotting-fakes-with-data-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeezy 2 Analysis – Spotting Fakes With Data (Part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Part 1<\/a> we teed up the issue:\u00a0 Yeezy 2 auctions are filled with fakes.\u00a0 We explained what data outliers are, and why we need to remove them.\u00a0 Now let’s explain how.<\/p>\n

Below is a histogram showing the price distribution for our focus data set – Yeezy 2 eBay sales, combined Solars and Plats, deadstock only:<\/p>\n

\"Yeezy<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A histogram is a graph which create “buckets” for a range of values, and then displays how many data points fall into each range.\u00a0 In this case, we’ve created one bucket for 16 different price ranges.\u00a0 The first bucket is $0-$100.\u00a0 The second bucket is $101-$250, and so on.<\/p>\n

The blue bars show the number of pairs sold for a price which falls into that particular price range (bucket).\u00a0 For example, 167 DS pairs sold for between $0-$100.\u00a0 And that alone should start raising some questions.\u00a0 The Yeezys RETAILED for $250 – how the hell can they resell for fifty bucks?!?!\u00a0\u00a0 The answer is:\u00a0 they can’t.<\/p>\n

How does Campless eliminate fakes from data?<\/strong><\/p>\n

As a general rule we ignore any sales less than $100 – it’s usually a junk auction, like a semi-private listing where the actual transaction happens offline.\u00a0 For all DS sneaker analyses on Campless we set a minimum threshold, usually $100.\u00a0 If it’s less, we automatically ignore the data point.\u00a0 Sometimes that minimum is more, sometimes less, depending on the retail price and average resale price of the sneaker.\u00a0 For some pairs, particularly those which are part of packs, we also use maximums.<\/p>\n

For most sneakers, after the minimum and maximum are set (which is done at an individual, sneaker by sneaker basis), we then systematically and automatically apply a 2-times standard deviation<\/a> cutoff to eliminate outliers.\u00a0 What this means, statistically, is that using that cutoff eliminates many auctions that are very likely to be fakes.\u00a0 Using a standard deviation cutoff is a very common statistical method to eliminate outliers.<\/p>\n

How do we identify fake Yeezys from the data?<\/strong><\/p>\n

For most sneakers, this is the end of our outlier analysis – minimum, maximum, and standard deviation cutoff.\u00a0 But with Yeezys and other sneakers with a high percentage of fakes (usually ultra-limited hyperstrikes), we take a closer look and examine the data one sneaker at a time.\u00a0 We take what we know about that particular sneaker to create additional hypotheses to test, which lead to rules to eliminate outliers, and allow us to arrive at the purest data set possible.<\/p>\n

Put simply, Campless takes extra steps to make sure our sneakerhead data is accurate.<\/p>\n

The first step, then, is to ask:\u00a0 What do we know about the fake market, in general?<\/p>\n

Most “Disguised Fakes” sell for just slightly less than authentic sneakers<\/strong><\/p>\n

When people try to pass off variants as legit – i.e., “Disguised Fakes” – the price is usually slightly less than an authentic pair.\u00a0 For example, if most DS Jordan Retro 3 Black Cements are selling for $250-300, and someone lists a pair for $125 screaming “100% AUTHENTIC!”, I think we can spot the issue.\u00a0 But if that same dude lists his for $240, well, that hits at the center of our industry’s most significant problem.<\/p>\n

What do we know about the Yeezy 2 fake market?<\/p>\n

Yeezy 2 has an “Open Variant” market<\/strong><\/p>\n

It’s critical to know that unlike most fakes (or variants, AAA, etc.), there is an “Open Variant” market for Yeezys.\u00a0 This means that people are openly admitting they are selling a fake – they are not trying to pass it off as authentic.\u00a0 While there are plenty of Disguised Fakes, as well, there are also many auctions like this one:<\/p>\n