Lately, trading cards are making mainstream news every single month. In January, the hobby made headlines when a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 9 sold for $5.2 Million. Later that month two 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie cards PSA 10 sold at auction for $738,000 each. Most recently, a 2018-19 Panini National Treasures Luka Dončić rookie patch autograph card (RPA) sold for $4.6 Million, making it the most expensive basketball card sale in history. With numbers like that, everyone’s looking for a way to get in the game.
Given that the Luka National Treasures rookie card was in a Panini basketball card product that was released a little less than two years ago, it has many outside of the world of trading cards asking, “How do I get my hands on a million-dollar piece of cardboard?” The short answer is, you probably can’t. The card came from the most valuable Panini Basketball card set, National Treasures, this is not the type of thing you will find at a Target. A single hobby box of 2018-19 Panini National Treasures basketball cards costs almost $19,000 today and fewer and fewer of these boxes remain as time passes and they get opened. Anytime you are opening a box of cards it is the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket: every once in a while you will hit it big, but most of the time the total value of cards in a box is going to be less than the cost of the box.
Panini National Treasures are sought after because the set contains what is called rookie patch autograph cards (RPA). An RPA is a special rookie card that has not only been signed by the player but also has a multi-colored piece of a player’s worn jersey actually sewn into the card. Yes, you can own a trading card that may include a player’s sweat. Panini National Treasures is not the only set you can find an RPA in, but it does offer the most desirable RPAs with the largest and most unique patches used in basketball card sets. In the case of the Luka card, it was his logoman, meaning it contained the actual NBA logo patch from his jersey. Even if you are thinking to yourself that maybe you can get ahead of things and buy last year’s Panini National Treasures Basketball Hobby Box to look for a Zion Williamson or Ja Morant RPA, a Hobby Box of that, which contains 10 total cards, is going to run you over $5,000.
However, it’s not all a lost cause. Maybe like most people you can’t afford a $5,000 lotto ticket, but there are plenty of ways to make money in trading cards on StockX. For one, just because you buy that $5,000 box of cards doesn’t mean you have to play the lottery and open it. Leaving a box sealed to sell later has its own potential benefits. Instead of putting your faith in finding a single card, you are banking on the success of an entire rookie class that could be found in that box. When players from the rookie class included in the box improve and earn accolades, the value of the box increases. As long as the box remains sealed, it appreciates in value and can be resold. For example, the 2018-19 Panini Prizm Basketball Blaster Box (Luka’s rookie year) originally sold at retail for $20. In spring 2020 this same box was selling for over $100, today it sells for nearly $700.
Most trading card veterans opt for buying individual graded cards. Card values are tied to basic economics around player performance. When a player gets hot, demand for their cards goes up, and in turn, so does the price of those cards. From 2019 to early 2021 alone the LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome Rookie #111 PSA 10 went from selling for $2,450 in October 2019 to $33,348 in February 2021. Without even having to bother with getting lucky opening a box, you could’ve seen over a $30,000 profit on the purchase and sale of a single card. Sure it isn’t millions, but how does the price of a new car sound? This particular LeBron card isn’t even an outlier, in the last 12 months the median price increase of all trading cards on StockX was 200%, and 94% of cards increased in value. A 2019 Topps Chrome Fernando Tatis Jr. rookie PSA 10 went for as little as $80 a year ago, today that same card is being sold for nearly $500.
The trick is staying ahead of trends, following these players closely to be able to know who is going to be the next big thing. If you are just starting out, pick a focus area. Do you have NBA league pass and watch almost every minute of every NBA game? Then start out by focusing on basketball cards. Don’t know the first thing about baseball? Then you probably don’t want to put your money into young hyped up, but unproven prospects that you really know nothing about. Of course, if you want to stay ahead of those trends, you can always check in with StockX to see where things are headed.
Maybe, buying a $4.6 million card is not in your reach right now, but with a focused strategy, and some patience there is still plenty of money to be made.
