Sneakers, like fashion, follow a cycle of ebb and flow. Sneaker trends are propelled forward by hype, and hype, by its very nature, is combustible and unstable. Bubbles eventually burst. Then, after periods of dormancy, they sometimes reinflate.
On Sunday morning, October 25th, adidas will release the Pharrell NMD Dash Green. The sneaker is currently flipping for $320, or nearly 50% above retail, in pre-release sales, and there are good reasons to believe that prices will remain strong. Consider the last two Pharrell NMDs that released last month: the Pharrell Hu Extra Eye Grey and Pharrell Hu Extra Eye Orange. In their first week on StockX, each resold for $60 over retail, with nearly 1,000 combined sales.
For students of sneaker hype, these numbers represent a sharp break with the recent history of NMD decline. Three years ago, Pharrell NMDs were among the hottest sneakers on the planet. At their 2017 peak, the average pair was reselling on StockX for over $1000, or 350% above retail. Within the adidas family, NMDs ranked right alongside Yeezys at the very highest echelon of popularity and hype. Yet while Yeezys have largely maintained their relevance, NMD hype saw a swift and dramatic reversal, with the Pharrell NMDs experiencing the sharpest drop.
Supply and Decline
Consider the following chart, which shows average Pharrell NMD prices on StockX since 2017:
At the start of 2017, Pharrell NMDs were flipping for several times retail. Yet by the end of 2018, premiums had fallen to zero. What happened? Did demand disappear? Did Pharrell lose his magic?
While these cultural factors sometimes play a role, the fall of NMDs had a much more material cause. What happened in 2017 and 2018 wasn’t about a decline in demand; it was about an increase – an enormous increase – in supply.
For this analysis, we counted up the number of major Pharrell NMD releases since 2016. We defined major releases as individual colorways with at least 100 StockX sales in the first four weeks. The following chart once again shows the average resale price over time, along with the number of major Pharrell NMD releases each month:
As you can see, the deterioration of NMD resale price is directly correlated with the number of major releases. Between February and November of 2018, there were no less than 17 Pharrell NMD releases that moved major numbers on StockX.
Of course, increasing supply isn’t always bad for a brand: insofar as it expands access to more customers, it often proves to be positive. And while it always results in somewhat lower resale values, increased supply doesn’t necessarily kill hype. Yeezy also ramped up supply in 2018, and while prices fell considerably, the hype around Yeezys, along with their resale premiums, has remained strong (albeit somewhat reduced).
For Pharrell NMDs, the crucial inflection point came in August of 2018. By that month, prices had fallen, but the average Pharrell NMD was still selling for 60% over retail – a very healthy margin. Hype was alive and well. Then, over the next four months, adidas released another 11 colorways – including five in December alone – and premiums fell to zero.
Seeds of a Comeback
Yet while supply can be inflated, it can also be restricted. And here is where the NMD narrative changes into a potential comeback story.
As you can see from the previous chart, adidas has been extremely conservative with their releases over the past year, and after a long period of restricted supply, prices are starting to rise again. We saw it with the Extra Eye NMDs that dropped last month, which started out selling on StockX for well above retail. Hype, it appears, is starting to return.
Now, following their recent success, adidas and Pharrell are delivering a new trio of limited-edition NMDs. While this pack’s “Sesame” and “Crystal White” colorways will only release regionally in the US and Asia / Pacific regions, the “Dash Green” pair will see a global release. But the global availability of the Dash Green NMD doesn’t mean it will be an easy cop. These NMDs are extremely rare: only 7,777 pairs were produced. That’s less than the supply of the Jordan 1 High Dior, a sneaker that now fetches five-figure resale prices.
The last time that an NMD released in extremely limited quantities was in 2017, when the adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x Chanel was announced as having only 500 pairs in existence. Since its release, the Chanel Pharrell NMD has become the most expensive adidas shoe in StockX history, averaging a resale price of over $6,000 in the last 12 months.
But supply isn’t the only factor. Colorway could have a big impact as well. In 2020, we’ve found that green colorways tend to outperform other variants of the same sneaker. We looked at three examples where a green colorway released as part of a multi-color pack. On average, the green versions resold for $34 more than their non-green counterparts.
If you look at a larger sample, the difference is even larger. When we analyzed over 80 green colorways released in 2020, the average price of this group was $51 more than the non-green group. Clearly, 2020 shoppers are feeling the green.
These two factors – limited supply numbers and a trendy green colorway – combined with their high pre-release resale price suggest that Sunday’s Dash Green drop could be the most successful Pharrell NMD in years. This revival of hype is something we should all cheer. Pharrell NMDs are exquisitely designed shoes, rich in history and cultural significance, and as worthy of restoration as any sneaker from the past decade. Also, everyone loves a comeback story, and this would be one for the ages.
