Nike Air Force 1 Cactus Jack - By The Numbers

The Nike Air Force 1 Cactus Jack is on schedule to release this weekend, and so far, it’s expected to put MVP numbers on the board. In today’s world, pretty much anything sporting Travis Scott’s name is destined for prestige. Do you remember when Travis had kids mobbing outside of grocery stores to cop a box of Reese’s Puffs? Exactly. While Travis unloaded three Air Jordan models in the past year, his Air Force 1s have silently skyrocketed in value. Let’s break down why the upcoming release of the Nike Air Force 1 Cactus Jack has the potential to be the most traded Travis Scott AF1 of all time.

For Travis and Nike, it all started with an Air Force 1. This is the first silhouette La Flame had the opportunity to put his spin on and it has since aged like fine wine. To celebrate the 35th Anniversary of the Air Force 1, Nike invited Travis to be a featured collaborator in their AF100 capsule collection. This AF1 would feature a white canvas upper with 3M detailing, removable Swoosh logos, and velcro patches. In the first year after the initial release, the Travis Scott Air Force 1 averaged a resale price of $400 and premiums of 167%. Since this was Travis’ first Nike, this was tremendous news. There weren’t any previous expectations for what resale prices would sit at, so to see this shoe triple in value was unthinkable. Now, looking back, we wish we would have known what they go for now. 

Just when we thought it couldn’t get any better, it did. In the last three months, the Nike Air Force 1 Travis Scott AF100 has averaged a resale value of $813 and premiums of 442%. This double-up in resale value and premium wasn’t by chance. Recent history has shown that Travis is at the top of the sneaker world, and anything he touches turns to gold. The popularity of his Air Jordan models has trickled down to his earlier collaborations like the AF1, and the result has been a spectacular spike in resale value. Although a spike like this may appear as an outlier, the Travis Scott AF100 isn’t the only Travis AF1 to experience late hypergrowth.

A year after the release of the AF100, Nike unveiled a near-identical Travis Scott Air Force design in a new Sail colorway. Similar to its predecessor, the Air Force 1 Low Travis Scott Sail put up solid, but not spectacular, numbers in its first year on the market: it averaged a resale value of $439 and premiums of 193% those first first 365 days. Many assumed that these prices would stay consistent since this was a sequel release and arrived in mass quantities. And yet, like the design itself, the rise in resale value for the Sail AF1 has proven to be identical to the first version. In the past three months, these sneakers erupted to an average resale price of $985 and premiums of 557%. These averages are greater than the Travis AF100, indicating no shortage of demand in the market. 

Prior to its release, the Nike Air Force 1 Cactus Jack has already been selling on StockX at an average value of $714 and at premiums near 346%. These sneakers have already totaled more than 500 sales, more than twice as many pre-release sales as last month’s Travis Scott Jordan 6. How will prices for the Cactus Jack AF1 respond after their official release, when supply fully hits the market? Something tells us this sneaker will follow the path previously taken by its predecessors.  Market lows in price and premiums are likely to occur initially after the official release when quantities increase, but just like previous Travis Scott Forces, these shoes will spike over time and potentially set sales records for Travis and Jumpman alike.