On March 25, Topps baseball cards introduced the Project 2020 set, announcing that they’d be releasing two cards every business day for the remainder of the year. 200 days. 20 classic cards. 20 artists. 400 amazing iterations of historic cards. The Topps 2020 Project has taken the world by storm and captured the attention of both experienced card collectors and those outside the hobby. Each card in the set is a unique piece of art at a retail price of $19.99.
Topps Project 2020 came out of the gates with very little momentum. In fact, the first card only had a print run of 1,334. However, shortly after the first few cards were released, the hype intensified and the demand went through the roof. Topps responded by dramatically increasing the supply of cards on the market with higher print runs. The result is that prices, which were initially quite high, have fallen considerably over the last few weeks.
Ichiro Suzuki 2001 Topps Project 2020 Ben Baller /1334 #1
To illustrate how the market has shifted, we’ve compiled an “index” of the best-selling cards in the set, similar to a stock market index like the S&P 500. The index consists of one of each of the following:
- Mike Trout 2011 Topps Project 2020 Ben Baller #51
- Ichiro Suzuki 2001 Topps Project 2020 Sophia Chang #62
- Derek Jeter 1993 Topps Project 2020 King Saladeen #29
- Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Topps Project 2020 Tyson Beck #25
- Ted Williams 1954 Topps Project 2020 Ermsy #58
- Willie Mays 1952 Topps Project 2020 King Saladeen #61
Below, you can see how our Project 2020 index behaved in the very short period between May 30 and June 6. As shown in the chart below, the index started trading at an aggregate price of $916. In just one short week, it fell all the way to $341. That is a 63% decline!
Overall Index
Part of this change can be attributed to more cards arriving at customers’ doorsteps, and thus more sellers entering the market. But another important cause was the huge increase in overall supply. After the initial spike in prices, we saw some insanely high new print runs, which is illustrated in the graph below. As you can see, there is a strong correlation between the uptick in print runs and declining price premiums of the Project 2020 cards.
The turning point for the print runs came with a few different cards. It began with the release of the Mike Trout 2011 Topps Project 2020 Ben Baller #51 which had a print run of 34,950. Following that, the Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Topps Project 2020 Keith Shore #88 received the highest print run to date with a whopping 99,177.
Below are the individual price graphs for the six of the best selling Project 2020 cards on StockX. In each of these examples, you can see a drastic fall in card value after the news came out about the high print runs:
This card is Ben Baller’s interpretation of the Mike Trout 2011 Topps Update Series #US175. With a Print run of 34,950, Ben Baller’s Trout card features a gold chain and diamond-encrusted jewelry that has become synonymous with the artist’s name.
Sophia Chang’s Ichiro is the 62nd card in the 400 card set, with a print run of 6,207. The Queens, New York-based artist has designed her own collection with Puma as well as collaborations with Nike, adidas, the NBA, and more. This is Sophia Chang’s take on the Ichiro 2001 Topps Baseball #726 rookie card.
King Saladeen’s Jeter is the 29th card in the 400 card set, with a print run of 9,873. The West Philadelphia world-renowned contemporary artist is admired for his creation of the “Money Bear”. This card is his take on the Derek Jeter 1993 Topps Baseball #98 rookie card.
Tyson Beck’s Ken Griffey Jr. is the 25th card in the set and has a print run of 3,707. Tyson Beck is an industry leader in sports design working with the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and more. Beck’s Griffey card is a colorful reinterpretation of The Kid’s 1989 Topps Traded #41T rookie card.
Ermsy’s Ted Williams card is the 58th card in the 400 card set, with a print run of 4,859. The Paris-based artist is known for reimaging popular cartoons in his topsy-turvy and smoke-filled world. This card brings Ermsy’s signature aesthetic to Williams’ 1954 Topps Baseball #250 card.
King Saladeen’s Willie Mays is the 61st card in the 400 card set with a print run of 5,459. Hailing from West Philadelphia, King Saladeen is a world-renowned contemporary artist who is widely admired for his creation of the “Money Bear”. This card represents Saladeen’s take on The Say Hey Kid’s 1952 Topps Baseball #261 card
Between late May and early June, we can see that the resale value of all six of these top-selling cards plummeted, with prices falling 50-70% from their initial highs. This is the natural consequence of the aforementioned print runs, with the market adjusting predictably to news of increased supply. The good news for investors is that prices appear to have stabilized. Moreover, when you consider how high prices were just a few short weeks ago, it’s clear that these cards are highly coveted and demand for them is strong. It’s very possible that prices will begin rising again, in which case, now could be a terrific time to buy low.
Next week, we’ll check in again to see where things stand. So stay tuned!
