All-Star weekend is upon us and so is the barrage of Nike and Jordan Brand sneaker releases.
This year Chicago is home to the festivities, leading many Chi-Town legends to do something special for the occasion. Among the notable hometown heroes, Virgil Abloh announced that he would be releasing a new Jordan: the Off-White Air Jordan 5.
Although the 5 doesn’t have a historic relationship with hyped releases, this past year has shown us how valuable Jordan 5s can be when done in collaboration. An Off-White cosign tied to Virgil’s deep connection to Michael Jordan could make this release touch the sky on StockX. With the Off-White Air Jordan 5 releasing this weekend, we look to our data and the history books to uncover why this release could be Virgil’s best collaboration yet.
Off-White Jordans Reign Supreme
The first reason to think the Off-White Air Jordan 5 could break resale records is simple: Off-White Jordan silhouettes consistently out-perform virtually every other sneaker collab. Let’s review the history.
In the Spring of 2017, Virgil Abloh and Nike revealed a collaboration that would send shockwaves throughout the sneaker community. Titled “The Ten,” Virgil selected ten of Nike’s silhouettes and reconstructed them in a way that had never been done before. One sneaker that became an immediate fan favorite was the Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White Chicago. In addition to being the only Air Jordan in the collection, the Jordan 1 also had the most meaningful backstory, tying back to Virgil’s childhood growing up in Chicago and seeing Michael Jordan as a superhero.
It was common knowledge that this Off-White Jordan 1 would be an instant sell-out going into their Fall 2017 release. What we did not count on was just how limited they would be. Since its release, the Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White Chicago has averaged an all-time sales average of $2,143 and an average premium of 1028% on StockX. Limited production of this Jordan 1 has caused demand to climb immensely over time. In the last 12 months, these sneakers have spiked 61% to an average trade value of $3,457. The Jordan 1 Off-White Chicago remains the most expensive Off-White x Nike collaborative sneaker out of the 52 sneakers they have released since. One might suspect that the first time was an outlier and that we shouldn’t expect the Off-White Air Jordan 5 to post similar numbers. But the data shows that all Off-White Jordans have overperformed.
As a group, Off-White Jordans are the most appreciated silhouette in Virgil’s history with Nike. The three Jordan 1s that Nike released with Off-White are all in the top 10 in terms of the average sales price for their collaborative sneakers. They have a combined average resale value of $1,712 and an average premium of 800%. This sales data not only places them as the most valued Off-White collaborative silhouette but for Air Jordan 1 models in general.
We compared the average sales values and premiums of Off-White Jordan 1s to the averages of all Jordan 1 High releases and found that Off-White models sell at a 688% higher premium. What’s important to note is that Jordan 1 High sneakers are already one of the most profitable sneakers for resellers, with an average premium of 112%. This means the average Jordan 1 High is worth more than double its retail price as soon as it hits the secondary market. Yet adding the Off-White brand to this silhouette causes a nearly-eightfold increase in resale value.
Collaborations Using The 5
Of course, this latest Off-White collab isn’t a Jordan 1, but a Jordan 5. Is there any reason to think that the Off-White Air Jordan 5 will reach the same resale heights as their sister silhouette? We think the answer is yes.
Now, original Jordan 5 colorways don’t have a history of selling for lofty amounts like OG Jordan 1s do. With age, some appreciate, but for the most part they still only sell a little above retail. Moreover, Jordan 5 releases have been scarce when compared to the frequency in which Jordan 1s have been releasing. In 2019, the Jordan 5 only saw four releases compared to over 200 releases of the Jordan 1.
Among these four releases was the Jordan 5 Trophy Room Ice Blue. The Trophy Room 5 did the unthinkable and averaged a resale value of $753, with a premium of 277%. With 4300 sales on StockX, this shoe acquired the largest market share of retail collaborations in 2019. This has given us a glimpse of how impactful collaborations are on the Jordan 5 silhouette and should make us very optimistic about how the Off-White Air Jordan 5 will perform.
In the few collaborations that have used the Jordan 5, we have seen a significant spike in price premium when compared to all-time Jordan 5s. As a group, collaborative Jordan 5s boast an average price premium of 192%. By contrast, the typical Jordan 5 on StockX has an average price premium of just 30%. Although Supreme and Trophy Room are notable collaborators, they are still not as impactful as Off-White in terms of large-scale collaborative sneaker releases. The fact that smaller collaborations are creating a large bump in value to Jordan 5s is a sign that a larger collaboration like Off-White could lead this silhouette to new heights in resale value.
How will prices for the Off-White Air Jordan 5 respond after their official release, when supply fully hits the market? So far, the Off-White Air Jordan 5 has a pre-release average trade value of $1,403 and premiums of 524%. We expect there to be some initial drop off in value, but overall this shoe will appreciate in time. If these shoes can retain value after their official release, the Off-White Air Jordan 5 would be the first of its silhouette to trade in the four-figure range after having a large scale release. This release has the potential to be Virgil’s best collaboration because of the untapped potential that comes with the Air Jordan 5 silhouette. The Jordan 1 appreciates tremendously in value as it is, collaboration or not. With the Jordan 5, Virgil has the opportunity to release the most coveted of its kind.
