Nike Dunks have always been in style and always will. They are an iconic staple sneaker that blends the lines between performance and casual wear. Whether it’s an old pair you were able to snag from your local skate shop or a newly released Supreme Dunk, people of all ages have a connection to the Nike Dunk silhouette. In recent months, we have noticed more people wearing decade-old dunks. From what started as a retro Air Jordan 1 craze dating 8 years back, we are now seeing the focus shift to their sister design, the Nike Dunk. Labels like Off-White, Comme Des Garcons, and Ambush are picking up on this hike in Dunk interest and set to release their own renditions of the Nike Dunk throughout the fall and 2020. Is the retro Dunk craze real? Or is it a coincidence? We took a deep dive into our StockX sales data, and the results are clear: Dunk Mania is real. Here is why historical value, advancements in technology, and present-day cultural figureheads are playing integral parts in making decade-old Nike Dunks this month’s Market Mover.
The History
The year was 1985. Back to the Future was playing in theaters, Microsoft released the first version of Windows, and CDs were the newest way to listen to music. It was around this time where Nike Basketball and College Basketball started to grow and garner attention simultaneously. Following the release of the Air Jordan 1 and the Nike Terminator, Nike was looking for a new basketball shoe to deliver as the centerpiece of their Nike College Color’s program, a program that delivered footwear in the school colors of 12 popular basketball programs allowing fans to support their favorite teams from head to toe. Nike turned to Air Jordan 1 designer Peter Moore, who delivered a design later known as the Nike Dunk High.
Original catalog pages from Nike Basketball’s 1985 footwear collection.
Originally named the “College Color High”, the Nike Dunk was a mash-up design comprised of elements found in the Air Jordan 1 and Nike Terminator. This sneaker was also the first campaign that featured bold colors on basketball shoes. Before the Nike “Be True To Your School” campaign for their College Colors program, basketball shoes, in general, were not loud and colorful because NBA regulations prohibited them. The Nike Dunk broke the mold for colorways used in basketball shoes.
When Nike SB arrived in 2002, the colorway barriers were broken down once again. By this time it was no secret that Nike Dunks were just as popular as AJ 1s in the skate scene as they were on the court, so Nike decided to modify them to better fit the criteria of a perfect skate shoe. After sitting down with the skaters of their newly formed skate team, they determined a larger, padded tongue and Nike Air Zoom airbag in the sock liner would be the new components of the Nike SB Dunk.
These construction modifications in part welcomed in a new way that brands conceptualized colorways. The first run of colorways were designed by the skaters themselves and labeled the Nike SB “ColorsBy” series. Original Nike SB skaters Richard Mulder, Danny Supa, Reese Forbes, and Gino Ianucci all created their own SB Dunk colorways that were later released to the public. These skater edition colorways were all inspired by their past experiences and personal interests, resulting in Dunks the world had never seen before. Following the ColorsBy series, Nike SB collaborated with skate brands Supreme, ZooYork, and Chocolate for collaborative Nike SB Dunks. These releases, specifically Supreme’s Air Jordan 3 Black Cement inspired Dunk Low, created the after-market for SB Dunks and the hype began.
Throughout the 2000s, Dunk SBs were at the forefront of sneaker collecting, just trailing Air Jordans and Air Force 1s. When the craze began if you weren’t able to purchase these limited colorways at your local skate shop then you would have to flee to eBay, travel to a resale store in a large city, or go to your nearest Sneaker Convention to get them. Even then, most people who became aware of these eccentrically inspired sneakers weren’t able to get their hands on them. Resale value was undefined and online presented very limited quantities for resale. Luckily, technology and markets evolve. Now we are fortunate enough to have access to an archive of shoes we wanted in the past but were unable to access. This factor has lead many people, including us, to make nostalgic purchases.
For the people who weren’t reading sneaker blogs in 2007 or watching SB collection videos on Youtube, cultural figures today are wearing their nostalgic Dunks, leading Dunk newcomers to a plethora of history. We can’t go on Instagram without seeing Travis Scott rocking a pair of Dunk Low Bucks or seeing LeBron walking into the Staples Center in some Ferris Bueller’s. Even the collaborations of today are built on the past. Virgil Abloh’s upcoming Dunk collaboration with Nike is inspired by Nike’s original “Be True To Your School” campaign. Recent photos show that he is reinstating the original UNLV and Michigan Dunk colorways. With our leaders in pop culture attributing their tastes to the past, the market has taken notice and the results are showing on StockX.
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The Numbers
To see measure this recent trend, we looked at StockX sales data for the older cohort of Nike Dunks – those released between 2002 and 2009 – from the last 90 days, and compared it to a baseline of all-time sales data. This analysis lets us measure exactly how much the popularity and resale value of Dunks has increased in the last three months. In the last 90 days, just over 1000 pairs of Nike Dunks from 2002-2009 have sold on StockX. These Dunks have achieved an average resale value of $630, around $150 higher than the all-time baseline. On the premium side of things, Dunks have averaged premiums of 629% in the last 90 days. By contrast, the all-time average premium for Dunks released this mid-2000s is 471%. The data is clear: across the board, these last 90-days have shown dramatic increases in value and price premiums for mid-2000s Dunks.
We also broke down the numbers by release year, to see how this upward trend in resale value varies across different groups. The following two charts show the 90-day resale value and premiums for each release year, and compares that to their all-time baseline:
As you can see, both average resale value and price premiums have increased across all release years, with Dunks from 2002 and 2005 seeing the greatest relative spikes. In terms of resale value, Nike Dunks from 2005 have posted the highest increase in average order amount, showing a $283 average increase just in the past 90 days. At the top of the ’05 class (and the leader among all Dunks) is the 2005 Nike Dunk SB Low Staple NYC Pigeon. There have been 3 sales in the past 90 days, and the average resale price across those sales was an eye-popping $13,608, or a premium of 6704% above retail. These 90-day averages show the Dunk Low Pigeon is acquiring value at a rapid rate: the all-time average price of Jeff Staple’s famous sneaker is $9,593. So these Dunks have gained over $4,000 compared to their all-time baseline – an incredible jump in such a small span of time.
As the quantity of these deadstock, decade-old Dunks diminishes, their value will almost certainly continue to increase. Retros of these legendary colorways may also play a factor in driving Dunk resale value up across the board. As we look to the future for what is to come next, the future looks to the past for inspiration. Much like the Air Jordan 1 has shown, Nike Dunk is a design that has withstood the test of time and has converted itself from a performance sneaker to a collectible, acquiring value with age. These past three months have proven that, at least right now, the Dunk category is the leading market mover for retro sneakers. As the hype continues to boom, so will the resale market for Dunks.
