Do we really need to give an intro? If you’re reading this blog and don’t know about the Fragment 1, I assume you’re my mother, because that’s the only logical explanation. Mom, I’ll explain later. Let’s move on.
The Fragment 1 released on December 27. We pulled this data on January 1. So this analysis starts during pre-sales, and continues for five days post-release. As always, it’s an analysis of closed eBay auctions. (Live Frag auctions continue to happen).
Resell overview:
Key Insights:
- As always, price of the “unsold” auctions – those that end without a sale – is higher than those which actually sell
- The Fragment 1 was very limited, as we know, so a total of 169 pairs sold in 5 days feels like a pretty decent number moving.
- $744 is a lot of money for a shoe. It retailed for $185.
Let’s look at the sales price and volume over time:
Key Insights:
- Not surprisingly, almost 1/3 of all sales happened on release day
- Pre-sale was relatively low for these, presumably because so few people could secure their pairs ahead of time
- Price has been increasing pretty clearly. Although it looks like there has been a slight dip over the past few days, our guess is that these turn back up very soon and continue increasing for a very long time.
Let’s take a look at two additional stats: time to sell and number of pairs per seller.
Key Insights:
- The Time-to-Release chart is very interesting. For a long time (7+ days prior to release) pre-sales took a while to sell. But as the hype grew, as we approached release date, there was a pretty drastic decrease in time to sell from almost five days to less than two.
- Time-to-Release bottomed out two days post-release at exactly one day. Since then it has been rising very quickly. This makes complete sense, as we know prices have been increasing.
- The Sellers chart is not at all interesting (in our opinion). Only 8 sellers had more than 2 pairs to sell. With such a limited release, that is to be expected.
Let’s see if we can identify fakes purely based on resell price:
Key Insights:
- Although we’ve used statistical techniques to eliminate fakes prior to this, this shows all sales, by price. And as you can see, there are a 61 pairs that might be fake.
- The difference between the resell price is $868 vs. $744 if we exclude these possible fakes. But the reality is that the price is probably closer to the middle number, $796, because many of the low sales occurred pre-release, before people realized how limited and how expensive, this shoe would get.
Regardless of price, a final view which may be helpful is to look at sales by day (as opposed to just average price by day, which we did in the second chart):
What do you think? Will the Fragment 1 continue to increase in price? Which are fake? When are you going to sell yours?
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