Air Jordan 1 Retro Obsidian UNC - By The Numbers

The Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC is on schedule to release this Saturday, August 31st, and so far, pre-release sales numbers and premiums lead us to believe that this newest colorway is a must-buy. Jordan Brand has not hesitated in recent years to paint the classic silhouette of the Jordan 1 in new colorways. Since 2015, we’ve seen countless Air Jordan 1 releases, with the vast majority flipping for well above retail. Let’s look into why this newest UNC-inspired Jordan is a hidden general-release gem that could flourish with age.

Many people know Michael Jordan as a Chicago Bull, but before he put on the black and red he was wearing Carolina blue. MJ played in three seasons for the University of North Carolina Tarheels. In his college career, he was named an NCAA Champion, ACC Freshman of the Year, and was winner of the prestigious Naismith and Wooden College Player of the Year awards in 1984. After establishing himself as the best Tarheel to ever do it, he headed to the NBA.

In 1985, the world famous Carolina blue made its debut on a Jordan shoe as well, at the same time that Nike debuted Michael Jordan’s first signature shoe. The UNC colorway was a part of the original line of Jordan 1s alongside the holy grails that are “Bred” and “Chicago” colorways. Since then, Jordan Brand has enlisted Carolina (University) blue in over a dozen colorways that regularly resale on StockX. 

Prior to this year’s Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC, the Jordan 1 has only retroed once in the UNC colorway, and that was back in 2015. The 2015 release has current Bids on StockX as high as $600 and in the last year has averaged a resale price of $350 and premium of 168%. Ever since hitting a low of $200 in July 2017, the Air Jordan 1 UNC (2015) has risen in resale value. Over the past year, prices have climbed more than $200, and pairs are currently flipping for nearly $500 on our platform.

In 2018, Virgil Abloh looked to the Carolina blue for the third installment of his reconstructed Off-White Air Jordan 1s. With just under 8000 sales made on StockX, these shoes were the most produced Off-White Jordan 1. Consequently, their resale value ended up being the lowest of the three installments. Considering how limited the other colorways were, being the “lowest” isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Off-White UNC 1s have averaged a resale price of $987 and premiums of over 1,000% in the past year.   

In recent months, we have seen one other AJ1 that is highly reminiscent to the latest Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC: the Jordan 1 Retro High UNC Patent (W). This sneaker released in women’s sizing on February 2019 and been a stand-out amongst other 2019 releases. Amassing over 21,000 sales, large production quantities have surprisingly not hurt resale prices. This shoe has averaged a resale price of $385, a price premium of 140%, and an individual sale high of $720. Due to close resemblance in colorway and a change in material, this month’s Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC has a chance to do even better. 

For one thing, leather sells better than patent. Perhaps it’s fear of the dreaded toe box crease or the initial stiffness of the material, but it shows in the numbers. Overall, Air Jordan 1s that are made with leather sell for average resale prices that are considerably higher than those made of patent. 

In addition, good colorways are an essential ingredient to resale success. Nobody was expecting the Shattered Backboard 1s to turn into the monster they are now when they released. Once they were deemed a success, the following release of the Reverse Shattered Backboards was an instant hit and did similar numbers. Based on the existing popularity of the UNC Patent 1s, the hype is segueing into this Saturday’s release and the numbers are already proving it. So far, the Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC has averaged a resale price of $430 and a premium of nearly 170%. 

How will prices for the Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC respond after their official release, when supply fully hits the market? Based on past trends, we expect prices will dip slightly as the market absorbs the extent of the supply. But given the popularity of past releases, it won’t be long until we see prices climbing again, with resale values continuing to appreciate with time. Much like the Patent UNC 1s, all indicators point to strong and continuous demand on the secondary market. The Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC is a sneaker with all pros and no cons, and could easily be one of the great Jordan colorways of 2019, for both resellers and casual buyers alike.